In a historic move that could reshape the geopolitical contours of the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan and Armenia, under the auspices of former U.S. President Donald Trump, signed a preliminary peace deal aimed at resolving the long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement, which includes the establishment of a transit corridor, might significantly diminish the traditional influence of regional powerhouses Russia and Iran in this strategically vital area.
Key Facts
- The deal was brokered during a White House summit hosted by Donald Trump, marking a significant diplomatic engagement by the former president since leaving office.
- Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed on the preliminary terms to end the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of critical importance to both nations.
- The agreement includes the creation of the Zangezur Corridor, a strategic passageway linking Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan, which is bordered by Armenia, Iran, and Turkey.
Background
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region primarily inhabited by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, erupted into full-scale war in the early 1990s. Despite a ceasefire brokered by Moscow in 1994, tensions have remained, with sporadic outbreaks of fighting. The region’s strategic significance is amplified by its location and the involvement of major regional powers, including Russia, which has maintained a military presence in Armenia, and Iran, which shares borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What We Know
The newly signed deal proposes the development of the Zangezur Corridor as a major transport and economic hub, potentially increasing the flow of goods and energy resources from Central Asia to Europe. This corridor could significantly alter the economic and strategic landscape, reducing Armenia’s reliance on Russian support and potentially isolating Iran geopolitically. The corridor has been named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), and the U.S. has been granted exclusive development rights for up to 99 years.
Official Reactions
During the summit, both Aliyev and Pashinyan praised Trump’s role in facilitating the agreement, with mentions of a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for his efforts. However, the deal has elicited mixed responses from other regional stakeholders. Russia and Iran have not officially opposed the agreement but have expressed reservations. Moscow, having played a longstanding role as a peacekeeper in the region, sees the deal as a potential reduction of its influence, while Iran has voiced concerns over the security implications of a new U.S.-controlled corridor on its border.
What’s Next
While the agreement marks a significant diplomatic breakthrough, its implementation faces numerous challenges. The terms of the deal require further negotiations, particularly regarding the sovereignty and management of the corridor. Additionally, the deal’s success depends heavily on the political stability in Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the broader acceptance and cooperation of major regional powers. As the situation evolves, the international community remains watchful, hoping that this agreement can finally bring a lasting peace to a region long fraught with conflict.