Myanmar Rebels Advance on Strategic Western Frontier
Arakan Army rebels are making significant advances in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, seizing control of key territory along the strategic western frontier. The rebel group now controls 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine and has pledged to liberate the entire frontier state. This shift in power has the potential to redefine the country’s civil war and reshape regional geopolitics, impacting neighboring countries like China and India who have invested in the region.
Key Facts
- Arakan Army (AA) Advances: The Arakan Army has seized control of 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, Myanmar.
- Territorial Ambitions: The rebel group has pledged to capture the remainder of Rakhine State, including the capital Sittwe, and key economic zones.
- Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has exacerbated a humanitarian crisis, with over two million people facing the risk of starvation due to the Myanmar military’s blockade of supplies.
- Civilian Casualties: Air strikes by the military government have reportedly killed hundreds of civilians, including children.
- Strategic Significance: Rakhine State is strategically important due to its location on the Bay of Bengal, bordering Bangladesh, and its connection to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The Arakan Army’s advances signify a major shift in the balance of power within Myanmar’s ongoing civil war. By gaining control over a significant portion of Rakhine State, the AA poses a direct challenge to the military government’s authority and asserts its ambition to establish self-determination for the region. The group’s pledge to capture the remaining areas of Rakhine, including key economic hubs, underscores its determination to consolidate its control and potentially negotiate from a position of strength in any future political settlement.
The conflict in Rakhine State has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, leaving a large segment of the population vulnerable to starvation and displacement. The military’s blockade of supplies has further aggravated the situation, restricting access to essential resources such as food and medicine. The United Nations and other humanitarian organizations have expressed grave concerns about the deteriorating conditions and are calling for urgent action to address the needs of the affected population.
The rising civilian death toll, attributed to air strikes and other forms of violence, highlights the devastating impact of the conflict on the local population. The reported deaths of hundreds of civilians, including children, underscore the urgent need for all parties to prioritize the protection of non-combatants and adhere to international humanitarian law. Allegations of abuses committed by both the military and the AA further underscore the need for accountability and justice for victims of violence.
The strategic location of Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh and serving as a crucial link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, adds a layer of complexity to the conflict. Control over the region could grant the AA significant leverage in negotiations with both the Myanmar government and external actors, potentially reshaping regional trade dynamics and geopolitical alliances. The presence of key infrastructure projects, such as oil and gas pipelines and deep-sea ports, further underscores the economic and strategic importance of the region.
Background
Rakhine State has been a region of conflict and ethnic tensions for decades. The Arakan Army, formed in 2009, has been fighting for greater autonomy for the Rakhine people. The conflict has intensified since the 2021 coup in Myanmar, with the AA gaining significant ground against the military government. The region is also home to the Rohingya Muslim minority, who have faced systematic persecution and violence, leading to a complex web of inter-ethnic and political rivalries.
The roots of the conflict in Rakhine State can be traced back to long-standing grievances related to political representation, economic marginalization, and cultural identity. The Arakan Army emerged as a response to these grievances, seeking to establish greater self-determination for the Rakhine people within Myanmar. The group’s armed struggle has gained momentum over time, attracting support from various segments of the local population who feel disenfranchised by the central government.
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar marked a turning point in the conflict, creating a power vacuum and emboldening various ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, to expand their territorial control. The military government’s preoccupation with suppressing dissent in other parts of the country has allowed the AA to consolidate its position in Rakhine State and mount increasingly effective offensives against military outposts and strategic locations.
The presence of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine State has added another layer of complexity to the conflict. The Rohingya have faced decades of discrimination, marginalization, and violence, culminating in the 2017 military crackdown that forced hundreds of thousands to flee to neighboring Bangladesh. The AA’s relationship with the Rohingya community has been fraught with tension, with reports of abuses committed by both sides, further complicating the prospects for peace and reconciliation in the region.
Timeline / What We Know
- 2009: Arakan Army formed.
- 2017: Military crackdown drives over 730,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh.
- 2021: Military coup in Myanmar.
- Late 2023 to Mid-2025: ULA reports 402 civilians killed by air raids, including 96 children.
- May (Year not specified): AA implements conscription for men aged 18 to 45 and women aged 18 to 25.
- Earlier This Month (Month not specified): World Food Programme warns that 57 percent of families in central Rakhine cannot meet basic food needs.
The Arakan Army was established in 2009, emerging as one of several ethnic armed organizations seeking greater autonomy and self-determination within Myanmar. The group’s initial focus was on recruiting and training fighters, establishing a presence in remote areas of Rakhine State, and building alliances with other ethnic armed groups operating in the region. Over time, the AA has gradually expanded its territorial control and increased its military capabilities.
The large-scale displacement of Rohingya refugees in 2017 marked a major humanitarian crisis and drew international condemnation. The military crackdown, which involved widespread human rights abuses and atrocities, led to a mass exodus of Rohingya civilians seeking refuge in neighboring Bangladesh. The events of 2017 remain a contentious issue and continue to cast a shadow over the political landscape in Rakhine State.
The military coup in 2021 plunged Myanmar into further turmoil, undermining democratic institutions and triggering widespread protests and armed resistance. The coup created a power vacuum that allowed ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, to expand their influence and challenge the authority of the central government. The AA has capitalized on the instability to consolidate its control over large swaths of Rakhine State.
The reported civilian casualties resulting from air strikes and other forms of violence highlight the devastating impact of the conflict on the local population. The ULA’s figures, indicating that hundreds of civilians, including children, have been killed in recent years, underscore the urgent need for all parties to prioritize the protection of non-combatants and adhere to international humanitarian law. The lack of independent verification of these figures, however, makes it difficult to assess the full extent of the civilian toll.
The implementation of conscription by both the AA and the military reflects the escalating intensity of the conflict and the growing need for manpower. The AA’s conscription campaign, targeting both men and women, suggests that the group is preparing for a protracted struggle and seeking to mobilize broader segments of the population in support of its cause. The military’s conscription efforts, aimed at bolstering its ranks, underscore the challenges it faces in maintaining control over contested territories.
The World Food Programme’s warning about the deteriorating food security situation in Rakhine State underscores the dire humanitarian consequences of the conflict. The fact that a majority of families in central Rakhine are unable to meet their basic food needs highlights the urgent need for increased humanitarian assistance and access to vulnerable populations. The blockade of supplies by the military has further aggravated the situation, restricting the flow of essential resources and pushing many families to the brink of starvation.
Official Reactions
A representative of the United League of Arakan (ULA) described Sittwe as “a stark example” of military rule, saying the regime’s leaders have “treated Arakan as occupied territory” for decades.
A ULA representative said air strikes on civilians “cannot produce tangible military outcomes”, describing such tactics as “terrorism”.
According to the rebels’ political wing, the ULA, “Muslim residents” in its areas of control in Rakhine “are experiencing better lives compared to any other period in recent history”.
The ULA representative said Kyaukphyu is a “sensitive area” for the AA, where it uses “the least amount of force necessary” and maintains a “firm policy of protecting foreign investments and personnel from all countries”.
The AA would “strive to pursue all possible means to foster positive relations with China”, the representative added.
Commenting on such a scenario, the ULA representative called for vigilance against the military’s traditional “divide and rule” strategy.
“War often involves advances and retreats,” said the representative. “This time, we are confident that the resistance forces can achieve meaningful change in the country.”
The ULA’s characterization of Sittwe as a “stark example” of military rule reflects the group’s long-standing অভিযোগ that the central government has systematically marginalized and oppressed the Rakhine people. The ULA’s assertion that the regime’s leaders have “treated Arakan as occupied territory” underscores its demand for greater autonomy and self-determination for the region.
The ULA’s condemnation of air strikes on civilians as “terrorism” reflects the group’s effort to portray itself as a defender of the local population against the military government’s abuses. The ULA’s claim that such tactics “cannot produce tangible military outcomes” suggests that the military’s actions are primarily intended to intimidate and punish the civilian population rather than to achieve strategic objectives.
The ULA’s assertion that “Muslim residents” in its areas of control are experiencing “better lives compared to any other period in recent history” is a carefully crafted statement aimed at countering allegations of abuses against the Rohingya community. By highlighting the supposed improvements in the lives of Muslim residents, the ULA seeks to project an image of inclusivity and tolerance, while implicitly denying any involvement in human rights violations.
The ULA’s acknowledgement that Kyaukphyu is a “sensitive area” reflects the strategic importance of the region and the potential for external actors, such as China, to become involved in the conflict. The ULA’s pledge to use “the least amount of force necessary” and to maintain a “firm policy of protecting foreign investments and personnel from all countries” suggests that the group is seeking to reassure foreign investors that their interests will be safeguarded in areas under its control.
The ULA’s commitment to “strive to pursue all possible means to foster positive relations with China” reflects the group’s recognition of China’s growing influence in the region and its desire to secure Beijing’s support or at least neutrality in the conflict. The ULA’s overtures to China are likely driven by a pragmatic assessment of the geopolitical landscape and a recognition that Beijing’s backing could be crucial to its long-term success.
The ULA representative’s call for vigilance against the military’s traditional “divide and rule” strategy reflects the group’s awareness of the potential for the military to exploit ethnic and religious divisions in order to weaken its opponents. By warning against the military’s tactics, the ULA seeks to maintain unity among the various ethnic groups and communities in Rakhine State and to prevent the military from gaining an advantage.
What’s Next
The Arakan Army’s continued advances suggest several possible scenarios. The group could consolidate its control over Rakhine State, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement with the Myanmar government or continued armed conflict. The AA could also focus on capturing key economic zones, such as Kyaukphyu, which could significantly impact regional trade and investment. The conflict could also escalate, drawing in other ethnic armed groups or external actors, further destabilizing the region. It is also possible that Myanmar’s military could regain ground in Rakhine State.
The consolidation of the AA’s control over Rakhine State could pave the way for a negotiated settlement with the Myanmar government, potentially leading to greater autonomy or self-determination for the region. However, the military government may resist ceding control over such a strategically important area, leading to continued armed conflict and further instability. The AA’s ability to maintain its territorial gains and to govern effectively in the areas under its control will be crucial in determining the long-term outcome of the conflict.
The AA’s focus on capturing key economic zones, such as Kyaukphyu, could significantly impact regional trade and investment, potentially disrupting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and altering the balance of power in the region. The military government is likely to resist any attempt by the AA to seize control of these strategic assets, leading to fierce fighting and further economic disruption. The involvement of external actors, such as China and India, could further complicate the situation and raise the stakes of the conflict.
The escalation of the conflict, drawing in other ethnic armed groups or external actors, could further destabilize the region and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The potential for cross-border tensions, particularly with Bangladesh, could also increase, leading to further displacement and regional insecurity. The involvement of external powers could transform the conflict into a proxy war, with potentially devastating consequences for the people of Myanmar.
The possibility of Myanmar’s military regaining ground in Rakhine State cannot be ruled out, particularly if the military government is able to consolidate its control in other parts of the country. However, the AA has proven to be a formidable force, and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances and to mobilize local support could make it difficult for the military to regain control over the entire region. The outcome of the conflict will likely depend on a complex interplay of military, political, and economic factors.
Methodology: This report is based on information from Al Jazeera.